建立锡山市跨行政区水域边界监控点的必要性和可行性

分析了建立锡山市跨行政区水域边界监控点的必要和可行性，并阐述了建立锡山市排污总量控制体系的重要性，以便提高整个区域的水环境质量。     

Hierarchical pre-positioning of emergency resources for a chemical industrial parks concentrated area

Accidents in chemical industrial parks always cause fateful damage which can be reduced greatly by providing emergency resources sufficiently and timely. One effective way to enhance the emergency response capacity and agility is by pre-positioning of emergency resources for the potential accidents. The Yangtze River Delta of China is a large region where a large number of chemical industrial parks are concentrated. According to the distributing characteristics of demand points in this region, a mathematical model of hierarchical pre-positioning of emergency resources is proposed to ensure that accidents in all chemical industrial parks in this region can be responded timely and effectively. Considering accident domino effect and minimizing the total cost, the model gives optimal decisions of pre-positioning emergency resources, including the location and inventory of depots. The innovative hierarchical pre-positioning method greatly reduces the total cost in the premise of sufficient preparation for supplying emergency resources. Finally, in a visual graph of the Yangtze River Delta, the model is applied and the result shows its applicability.     

基于生态系统服务功能的城市规划研究

健康的生态系统是城市可持续发展的重要基础,生态系统服务功能及价值评估是评价生态系统的重要指标,森林、草地、湿地等生态系统在调节气候、保持土壤、涵养水源等方面具有重要作用.以宁波市北仑区为例,应用市场价值化方法粗略地分析了该区域的生态系统服务功能现状,结果表明,13年间北仑区的生态服务价值下降11.35%,其中,草地的生态服务价值下降最快,降幅达79.84%.从生态经济学角度阐释森林等生态系统在城市开发建设中的重要性.     

Value of information in product recovery decisions: a Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question ‘what is its value?’ is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information.     

The new regime for managing US—Mexican water resources

United States-Mexican transboundary water resources management is presently experiencing significant reform resulting from long-term demographic processes in the border region and greater economic integration. The recently concluded North American Free Trade Agreement and supplementary environmental accord modify existing agreements and provide old institution with new mandates. Particularly affected is the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), long the lead agency in binational water management. This essay reviews the development of the new water management regime against the two preceding phases of management reform and considers its implications for improved water management in the border region.     

Cache and carry: hoarding behavior of arctic fox

Food-hoarding animals are expected to preferentially cache items with lower perishability and/or higher consumption time. We observed arctic foxes (Alopex lagopus) foraging in a greater snow goose (Anser caerulescens atlanticus) colony where the main prey of foxes consisted of goose eggs, goslings, and lemmings (Lemmus and Dicrostonyx spp.). We recorded the number of prey consumed and cached and the time that foxes invested in these activities. Foxes took more time to consume a goose egg than a lemming or gosling but cached a greater proportion of eggs than the other prey type. This may be caused by the eggshell, which presumably decreases the perishability and/or pilfering risk of cached eggs, but also increases egg consumption time. Arctic foxes usually recached goose eggs but rarely recached goslings or lemmings. We tested whether the rapid-sequestering hypothesis could explain this recaching behavior. According to this hypothesis, arctic foxes may adopt a two-stage strategy allowing both to maximize egg acquisition rate in an undefended nest and subsequently secure eggs in potentially safer sites. Foxes spent more time carrying an egg and traveled greater distances when establishing a secondary than a primary cache. To gain further information on the location and subsequent fate of cached eggs, we used dummy eggs containing radio transmitters. Lifespan of primary caches increased with distance from the goose nest. Secondary caches were generally located farther from the nest and had a longer lifespan than primary caches. Behavioral observations and the radio-tagged egg technique both gave results supporting the rapid-sequestering hypothesis.     

Balancing Emotion and Cognition: a Case for Decision Aiding in Conservation Efforts

Abstract: Despite advances in the quality of participatory decision making for conservation, many current efforts still suffer from an inability to bridge the gap between science and policy. Judgment and decision‐making research suggests this gap may result from a person's reliance on affect‐based shortcuts in complex decision contexts. I examined the results from 3 experiments that demonstrate how affect (i.e., the instantaneous reaction one has to a stimulus) influences individual judgments in these contexts and identified techniques from the decision‐aiding literature that help encourage a balance between affect‐based emotion and cognition in complex decision processes. In the first study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on their stated conservation objectives and made decisions that reflected their initial affective impressions. Value‐focused approaches may help individuals incorporate all the decision‐relevant objectives by making the technical and value‐based objectives more salient. In the second study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on statistical risk and again made affect‐based decisions. Trade‐off techniques may help individuals incorporate relevant technical data, even when it conflicts with their initial affective impressions or other value‐based objectives. In the third study, subjects displayed a lack of trust in decision‐making authorities when the decision involved a negatively affect‐rich outcome (i.e., a loss). Identifying shared salient values and increasing procedural fairness may help build social trust in both decision‐making authorities and the decision process.     

Socially robust knowledge in coastal projects

Interactive modes of knowledge production offer a strategy for seeking solutions to complex environmental problems. The outcome of such knowledge production is socially robust knowledge. Social robustness refers to knowledge that is relevant and accepted by actors in the context of its application. This is achieved when knowledge is credible, salient and produced in a legitimate way. To date, only limited research has focused on how social robustness is achieved. As coastal problems are characterised by conflicting interests and major uncertainties, the coastal zone represents a relevant domain for studying socially robust knowledge. This paper analyses and presents three conditions that need to be in place if one is to achieve socially robust knowledge in coastal projects. The conditions are based on theories related to socially robust knowledge, boundary spanning, project arrangements and knowledge arrangements. The conditions specify how social robustness can be achieved through knowledge testing by boundary spanners, the involvement of diverse actors and a close connection between knowledge production and the evolving project. In a case study, these conditions are compared to developments in a Dutch coastal project involving spatial developments near the Ems estuary. The comparison highlights the relevance of the three conditions in achieving socially robust knowledge. In addition, a fourth aspect is empirically uncovered: the role of boundary spanning among project partners prior to producing knowledge. These four conditions clarify how social robustness may be achieved in coastal solutions. As such, this paper contributes to the theoretical and empirical understanding of socially robust knowledge.     

Care and career: A family identity‐based typology of dual‐earner couples

The rise of dual‐earner couples challenges traditional gender stereotypes of women as “caregivers” and men as “breadwinners” and significantly impacts the ways in which partners define their roles as family members. The way in which individuals construe their family identities has implications not only for the decisions they make at home but also decisions in the workplace. In this paper, we propose an updated understanding of the different ways in which men and women can construe their family identity—specifically, in terms of care and/or career. Based upon this nuanced understanding of family identity, we outline five dual‐earner couple types—traditional, non‐traditional, family first, outsourced, and egalitarian—that stem from distinct combinations of partners' family identities. We also outline an agenda for theory and research that challenges scholars to further explore our proposed construals of family identity, work–family decisions at the couple level of analysis, and the interplay between family identity and social context. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

工程项目现场安全标志有效性评价

为改善工程项目现场作业安全状况,需要对安全标志的有效性进行评价。通过划分施工人员的认知行为阶段,从人机工程学系统优化的角度构建安全标志有效性评价指标体系,确立指标打分规则,采用网络层次分析法(ANP),运用超级决策(SD)软件确定指标权重、综合评分,并加以示例说明。结果表明:安全标志的有效性受注意阶段的显著性、识别阶段的可理解性、判断阶段的安全倾向性和行为阶段的易遵守性交互影响,其中,安全倾向性权重值最高。